It's been a rough few years for Cardinals nation. Back-to-back 4-13 campaigns certainly haven't been ideal, and neither has been their current eight-year streak of winless action in the playoffs.
That said, there's reason for optimism heading into 2024. After his return from a torn ACL, franchise QBKyler Murray managed to lead this lowly team to a pair of wins over playoff contenders last December. And this offseason, an eventful draft suddenly has glass-half-full fans believing that Arizona could be a potential dark horse contender in the ever-competitive NFC West.
Here's a quick overview of the Cardinals' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:
- Head coach: Jonathan Gannon (4-13 in one season with the Cardinals)
- Offensive coordinator: Drew Petzing (59.6% pass-play rate in 2023, 18th)
- Offseason arrivals: QB Desmond Ridder (acquired from Falcons), RB DeeJay Dallas (three years, $8.3 million), WR Zay Jones (one year, $2.3 million), and WR Chris Moore (one year, $2 million)
- Offseason departures: WR Marquise Brown (Chiefs), WR Rondale Moore (Falcons), and TE Geoff Swaim (free agent)
- Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Ohio State WRMarvin Harrison Jr. (1.04), Florida State RBTrey Benson (3.66), Illinois TE Tip Reiman (3.82), and Alabama-Birmingham WR Tejhaun Palmer (6.191)
- Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank andreturning starters: No. 25, 3/5
Here's to hoping that the additions of ex-Bengals OT Jonah Williams, ex-Seahawks C Evan Brown, and third-round OL Isaiah Adams out of Illinois can improve what was a below-average offensive line in 2023. After all, we've seen how quickly things can get ugly for Arizona when this offense doesn't have their pint-sized superstar under center.
Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position
Quarterback
- QB1: Kyler Murray (Fantasy Life consensus rank: QB8)
- QB2: Desmond Ridder
One of four QBs in NFL history to have averaged 20-plus fantasy points per game (PPG) in their career (!), Murray returned from injury and managed to lead a top-10 offense in EPA per play, yards per play, and TD drive percentage during the final nine weeks of 2023.
And he looked good doing it! Sure, zero games with 265 or more passing yards wasn't ideal, but the reality that thereseemed to be no post-injury dropoff was huge. In fact, Murray’s20.17 MPH scramble was his fastest speed since the end of 2021.
Murray also deserves credit for having largely made the most out of an objectively lousy situation. No. 1 WRMarquise Brown essentially missed the final five games of last season and was banged up for many others, which left the Cardinals with one of the league's most unproven group of pass-catchers. Throw in the aforementioned putrid offensive line, and it wasn't surprising to see Arizona rank outside the top half of the NFL inSupporting Cast Rating last year.
The good news is that Murray's new No. 1 WR has received the "generational" label by many draft pundits and appears poised to provide this offense with their first true game-changer at the position sinceDeAndre Hopkins. Here's a friendly reminder that Murray was definitively an above-average passer in three seasons with the artist known as Nuk by his side. Here's how he ranked among 53 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks from 2020 to 2022:
- EPA per dropback: +0.107 (No. 23)
- Completion percentage over expected: +2% (No. 12)
- PFF pass grade: 81.9 (No. 11)
- Passer rating: 94.5 (No. 20)
- Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 29)
Those aren't necessarily mind-blowing numbers, but they're also only half the equation when it comes to dealing with one of the game's most lethal dual-threat talents at the position.Among QBs who've started at least 16 games in their career, Murray's career average of 37.7 rushing yards per game trails only Lamar Jackson (61.1), Justin Fields (55.5), Mike Vick (42.7), Jalen Hurts (40.4), Josh Allen (38.4), and Cam Newton (38).
Dec 24, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs with the ball against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
The results in fantasy land have accordingly been rather fantastic for Murray ever since he stepped foot on a professional field.
- 2019: 17.8 fantasy PPG (QB11)
- 2020: 23.7 fantasy PPG(QB4)
- 2021: 21.5 fantasy PPG(QB4)
- 2022: 18.2 fantasy PPG(QB7)
- 2023: 18.3 fantasy PPG(QB9)
That 23.7 career-high PPG back in 2020 is what fantasy managers arereally chasing here. One of just seven QBs who've averaged north of 23.5 fantasy points per game in a single season over the last decade, there simply aren't many players at the position like Murray with a realistic path to 4,000-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards.
Ultimately, high-volume rushing QBsalmost never bust in fantasy football land, andFantasy Life Projections call for Murray to rack up the position's sixth-most total carries. His ability to flirt with his passing yards per game from 2021 (270.5) compared to the rest of his career (232.5) could be the difference between how close he finishes to the overall QB1 vs. the QB12. Just realize that good health should be more than enough to guarantee Murray yet another finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in 2024.
Bottom line: Murray isn't exactly free in fantasy land, but hisQB7 ADP at pick No. 80.9 overall is a bargain compared to fellow dual-threat playmakers likeJosh Allen (QB1, 37.3),Jalen Hurts (QB2, 40.4),Lamar Jackson (QB3, 45.5) andAnthony Richardson (QB5, 57.1).
While I'm not necessarily passing on those more expensive options, Murray andJayden Daniels (QB11, 101.5) are the two discounted rushing QBs this year and deserve to be prioritized as strong QB1 options in the middle rounds by drafters.
Running Back
- RB1: James Conner (Fantasy Life consensus rank: RB23)
- RB2: Trey Benson (RB35)
- RB3: DeeJay Dallas
- RB4: Michael Carter
Don't let Conner's lack of speed in Madden fool you:the man is not boring. Fourth in rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.02) last season behind onlyJaylen Warren (+1.11),Christian McCaffrey (+1.32), andDe'Von Achane (+2.87), the veteran RB was truly one of the game's best rushers of the football in 2023. Here's how Conner ranked among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries last season:
- Yards per carry: 5.0 (No. 6)
- Yards after contact per carry: 3.9 (No. 2)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.29 (No. 2)
- Explosive run rate: 15% (No. 4)
- Stuff rate: 22.6% (No. 44)
The final two metrics above reflect the reality that contrary to popular belief, the only real criticism of Conner's rushing style is that he occasionally looks a bit too much for the big plays and can get stuffed behind the line of scrimmage more than most as a result.
But even then, the good far outweighs the bad with Conner. After all, the man racked up 235 touches without losing a fumble or dropping a pass last season, a mark only bested byChuba Hubbard (277). Conner is also a solid enough pass-catcher who has averaged 36.7 receptions per year in Arizona.
Add it all together, and you have a RB who has consistently returned pretty great fantasy production at cost. Here's Conner's preseason ADP and finish in PPR PPG in his three seasons with the Cardinals:
- 2021: RB35 ADP, RB8 finish
- 2022: RB15 ADP, RB9 finish
- 2023: RB25 ADP, RB13 finish
Jan 7, 2024; Glendale, Ariz, U.S.; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) runs against Seattle Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen (27)during the first quarter. Photo Credit: Michael Chow / USA TODAY NETWORK
The main pushback on Conner is usually that “he'll get hurt”. Well, there's some merit to that argument. Age 29 is indeed about the time we seeRBs fall off the age cliff, and the veteran back has missed two, four, and four games over the past three seasons, respectively.
But are Conner's chances of injuryreally that much higher than any other RB projected for 200-plus touches in 2024? Draft Sharks' Injury Predictor tool gives Conner an 88.4% chance of missing at least two quarters. That's fairly high, but it's still lower than RBs likeKyren Williams (88.7%), and it's not that much higher than their projected odds for McCaffrey (63.6%) or Jonathan Taylor (65.3%).
The bigger concern for Conner's 2024 fantasy upside is the newfound presence of Trey Benson. Drafted 66th overall by Arizona in April, the Florida State product is the No. 2 RB in Dwain McFarland's critically acclaimedRookie RB Super Model and seemingly offers the sort oftheoretically three-down skill set that could be pretty, pretty great in fantasy land should the opportunity present itself.
Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort hasalready said Benson "complements James very well." OC Drew Petzing also had plenty of experience overseeing a committee backfield during his time in Cleveland from 2020 to 2022. Arizona's backfield could look somewhat similar in 2024 if Conner's vice grip over touches is loosened just a bit with the presence ofsuch an explosive No. 2 RB option.
Bottom line: The affordable nature of both Conner (RB27 ADP, pick No. 93.7 overall) and Benson (RB30, 106.5) makes both awesome zero-RB targets.
Similar to the Titans' backfield, there's extra upside here for each RB. Since both Conner and Benson have the ability to play on all three downs, either would profile as an immediate fantasy RB1 if the other were to miss time this coming season.
Wide Receiver
- WR1: Marvin Harrison Jr. (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR10)
- WR2: Michael Wilson (WR73)
- WR3: Greg Dortch (WR99)
- WR4: Zay Jones
- WR5: Zach Pascal
- WR6: Chris Moore
The artist known asMaserati Marv was most people's pick for the single-best WR in college football over the past two years. Here's how Harrison ranked among 125 qualifying Power 5 WRs from 2022 to 2023:
- PFF receiving grade: 92.3 (No. 1)
- Passer rating when targeted: 128.8 (No. 10)
- Receiving yards: 2,474 (No. 3)
- Receiving TD: 28 (No. 1)
- Yards per route run: 3.3 (No. 2)
- Yards per reception: 17.2 (No. 7)
- Targets per route run: 31% (No. 3)
Harrison’s 77-1,263-14 line withC.J. Stroud as a true sophom*ore back in 2022 was impressive enough, but he followed that up with a 67-1,211-14 campaign last year while catching passes from Kyle “Honda” McCord. Thatreally demonstrated that this 21-year-old WR talent is largely capable of thriving regardless of who's under center.
Thephysical tools are outstanding even if Harrison declined to test at the NFL Combine or at Ohio State’s Pro Day. Plus, his route-running abilityborders on ridiculous considering his size. Hell, even Harrison's work ethicseems elite.
Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a catch against Michigan defensive backs Quinten Johnson and Mike Sainristil during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
Harrison essentially broke Dwain’sRookie WR Super Model, andReception Perception noted that Harrison achieved his incredible 2023 production while seeing double coverage on 16.8% of his sampled routes, which was the highest percentage of any prospect they’ve ever charted.
This brings us to the main question: can Harrison post the immediate WR1 fantasy production as a rookie needed to meet his gaudy borderline Round 1 price tag? He would hardly be the first hyped rookie to not live up to expectations, especially early in his rookie season. Since 2010, here's how rookies who were drafted as top-10 WRs in fantasy fared in their first season in the league since 2010:
- Ja'Marr Chase: 81-1,455-13 (WR5 in PPR PPG)
- Garrett Wilson: 83-1,103-4 (WR30)
- Amari Cooper: 72-1,070-6 (WR27)
- A.J. Green: 65-1,057-7 (WR16)
- Mike Evans: 68-1,051-12 (WR13)
- Jaylen Waddle: 104-1,015-6 (WR15)
- Sammy Watkins: 65-982-6 (WR32)
- Julio Jones: 54-959-8 (WR12)
- DeVonta Smith: 64-916-5 (WR39)
- Drake London: 72-866-4 (WR45)
- Justin Blackmon: 64-865-5 (WR39)
- Tavon Austin: 40-418-4 (WR48)
- Corey Davis: 34-375-0 (WR76)
- Mike Williams: 11-95-0 (WR128)
- Kevin White: 0-0-0 (lol)
- John Ross: 0-0-0 (lol)
As for the other WRs behind Harrison, Greg Dortch isobjectively good at football. Don't believe me? Ask Kyler,who said that the pint-sized WR would be a top-five option if he were 6'3. That said, man coverage seems to be adeath sentence against Dortch, who tentatively profiles as the offense's full-time slot after Arizona tradedRondale Moore to Atlanta.
And then there's Michael Wilson, whoflashed a bit as a rookie on his way to earning ESPN's sixth-best catch rating in 2023. Like Dortch, Wilson currently projects as a starter but could see more snaps, as he's the favorite to stay on the field in two-WR sets.Fantasy Life Projections accordingly have Wilson earning the third-most targets on the team.
Bottom line: There simply aren't many clear-cut No. 1 WRs with 150-plus target upside attached to objectively good QBs. This makes it tough to slide Harrison too far down the positional ranks, even if hisWR9 ADP at pick No. 13.4 overall is admittingly gaudy. Ultimately, I'm still in on the rookie as an immediate top-12 option at the position, but I do prefer Garrett Wilson andDrake London over him in that Round 1-2 turn ADP range.
Both Dortch and Wilson are fine enough very late-round dart throws, though neither projects as anything more than the No. 3 option in this passing game. It's also possible that Zay Jones and/or Zach Pascal could mix in and play more snaps than fantasy managers who draft Dortch or Wilson late would like to see.
Tight End
- TE1: Trey McBride (Fantasy Life consensus rank: TE5)
- TE2: Tip Reiman
McBride's 81-825-3 sophom*ore campaign last year featured one helluva stretch run afterZach Ertz hit the IR and was eventually released. We're talking about a guy who was consistently knocking on the overall TE1 door throughout the second half of 2023. Here were McBride's weekly PPR fantasy finishes after getting the starting job in 2023:
- Week 8: TE8
- Week 9: TE27
- Week 10: TE2
- Week 11: TE12
- Week 12: TE7
- Week 13: TE3
- Week 15: TE3
- Week 16: TE21
- Week 17: TE12
- Week 18: TE7
Add it all together, and onlyDavid Njoku andEvan Engram managed to out-score McBride during this stretch.
Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Ariz, United States; Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (85) catches a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic
McBride wasn't exactly dealing with the most target competition in 2023, but his elite efficiency suggests that this was more than just an above-average player putting up great numbers on a bad team.Last year, only George Kittle (2.22) averaged more yards per route run than McBride (2.03), and nobody managed to earn a target on a higher percentage of their routes (25.9%).
The ceiling for McBride in 2024 is clearly a legit top-five fantasy TE finish with a shot at TE1 overall, but there's at leastsome concern that 2024 won't resemble 2023 as closely considering the following:
- McBride only had a 15-170-0 receiving line on 21 targets during the first seven weeks of last season before Ertz was injured.
- The Cardinals used the 82nd overall pick of the draft on Illinois TE Tip Reiman. The rookie may not have the greatest track record as a receiver, but he does possess aborderline erotic athletic profile.
- OC Drew Petzing was previously the TE coach with Cleveland from 2020 to 2022. In those three seasons, the Browns repeatedly featured not one, not two, but three TEs inAustin Hooper,David Njoku, andHarrison Bryant.
It's also possible that the arrival of Harrison could cause McBride's target ceiling to dip a little bit, but his specific usage in this Cardinals offense still bodes well for PPR-friendly production. After all, McBride (15) joined Njoku (16) and Engram (21) as the NFL's only TEs in 2023 who had 15-plus receptions on screens.
There's still a lot of potential target volume available for McBride in 2024 even assuming that Harrison will be the true No. 1 target for Murray considering the fact that there's no clear No. 2 WR in Arizona.
Bottom line: While I preferMark Andrews (TE4 ADP, pick No. 49.5 overall),Dalton Kincaid (TE5, 52.8), andKyle Pitts (TE6, 60.2) over McBride (TE3, 46.3) at cost, it's hard to argue his standing as a top-six option at the position.
There simply aren't many young, talented receiving options at the TE position who carry the same upside that McBride has. He has the potential to see triple-digit targets in 2024 on what projects to be a pretty solid Cardinals passing offense.
Arizona Cardinals 2024 Season Prediction
The Cardinals dished out free agent contracts on defense this offseason, paying at least $7 million annually to the likes of ex-Bears DL Justin Jones, ex-Raiders DL Bilal Nichols, and ex-Titans CB Sean Murphy-Bunting. They also used significant draft capital on Missouri DL Darius Robinson (1.27), Rutgers DB Max Melton (2.43), Boston College DB Elijah Jones (3.90), and Texas Tech DB Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (4.104). Year 2 of Jonathan Gannon's system should yield better results, but either way, things certainly can't get much worse for the league's reigning 31st-ranked scoring defense.
And yet, I have a hard time feeling overly confident in an Arizona team that still finished just 3-5 down the stretch with Murray under center.Look for the offense's top playmakers to provide some fantasy goodness, but plenty of questions about this offensive line and defense remain. Give me the under on 6.5 wins in 2024 for a franchise that has cleared that mark just twice over the last six seasons.
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